By Prof (Dr) S Surya Prakash
Bangladesh stands at a crucial crossroads. The people of Dhaka are anxiously watching the direction their nation is headed. Having endured struggles for linguistic self-respect, economic exploitation, and brutal military rule under Pakistan, the country won its independence in 1971 after a bloody war that saw the deaths of three million Bangladeshis and the mass rape of hundreds of thousands of women.
Decades later, Bangladesh finds itself in another crisis—one that threatens its political stability, economic survival, and longstanding relationship with India. The student-led revolution of August 2024, which led to the ousting of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, has strained diplomatic ties, raised questions about foreign influence, and pushed Bangladesh’s economy to the brink.
The Brutal Birth Of A Nation
The road to Bangladesh’s independence was paved with immense suffering. Under Pakistan’s oppressive rule, East Pakistan faced brutal crackdowns, none more horrifying than Operation Searchlight in 1971. Pakistani forces, led by General Yahya Khan and Lieutenant General Tikka Khan, committed unspeakable atrocities.
In his book Yodha, Shiv Kunal Verma details an intelligence report from an Indian officer, describing how over 300 naked women were confined in a Pakistani military camp, subjected to relentless sexual violence. The situation was so desperate that many women, pregnant from repeated rape, begged the officer to shoot them. Post-war estimates suggest that 25,000 children were born due to these atrocities, with many aborted, buried alive, or drowned in village ponds.
Nearly 10 million refugees fled to India to escape the carnage. India, despite its economic challenges, imposed a special tax on its citizens to sustain these refugees. When Pakistan surrendered on December 16, 1971, under the leadership of Bangabandhu Sheikh Mujibur Rahman, Bangladesh finally gained its long-fought independence.
The Cost Of War And The Shimla Agreement
India’s victory was decisive, yet it came at a diplomatic cost. While Pakistan surrendered 93,000 soldiers and lost 5,000 sq km of territory, the Shimla Agreement allowed it to recover both, in exchange for vague promises of peace. Worse still, while Pakistan repatriated its POWs, India failed to secure the release of its 200 missing soldiers still held in Pakistani jails.
Since then, Pakistan has viewed India as the architect of its division, fuelling decades of hostility and espionage.
The 2024 Student Uprising And Sheikh Hasina’s Ouster
For over 50 years, India and Bangladesh have shared cordial relations, regardless of the ruling party in Dhaka. But the student revolution of August 2024 changed everything.
At the heart of the agitation was a Supreme Court ruling that reduced the controversial 30 percent reservation for the descendants of freedom fighters in government jobs to just 5 percent. While this addressed a major grievance, the government’s response inflamed tensions. Allegations that Sheikh Hasina deployed former Razakars (Pakistani collaborators during the 1971 war) to suppress protests turned the tide against her. Under mounting pressure, she fled the country.
Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus was then installed as Chief Adviser to an interim government backed by student leaders, Jamaat-e-Islami, and the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP). The way to defeat undemocratic leaders is through elections, not chaos.
The Economic Fallout
The Yunus-led government now faces economic turmoil. Since Donald Trump’s return to the White House in January 2025, Bangladesh has found itself in Washington’s crosshairs.
- The IMF denied a $645 million loan request.
- USAID halted funding, laying off 2,000 overseas staff.
- Switzerland cut off financial aid.
- Elon Musk cancelled a $29 million investment in Bangladesh.
- 170 garment factories shut down, leaving over a million unemployed.
- Bangladesh is drowning in $78 billion in foreign debt, with 17 percent of its budget going towards loan repayments.
India, however, has maintained its Rs 120 crore aid package. Yet, with an economy dependent on garment exports and trade with India, Bangladesh is staring at a severe crisis.
Security And Strategic Challenges
Bangladesh shares a 4,000 km border with India and a smaller one with Myanmar. Ties with India have been crucial, not just for trade, but also for healthcare, with thousands of Bangladeshis travelling to Kolkata for medical treatment. However, recent intelligence reports suggest ISI operatives have been active in Rangpur, a region strategically close to India’s vulnerable “chicken neck” corridor. Given these developments, India will not remain silent.
Bangladesh’s Internal Strife: A Nation Divided
The revolution that ousted Sheikh Hasina has taken an ugly turn. Once a movement for change, it has spiralled into chaos, religious violence, and revenge politics.
- Statues of Mujibur Rahman were torn down.
- Hindu homes were burned, temples vandalized, and women brutalized.
- The interim government filed cases against journalists, lawyers, civil servants, and even a cricketer.
- A Hindu monk of ISKCON was arrested for sedition, shocking India’s Hindu community.
All signs point to the involvement of foreign deep-state actors, fundamentalists, and the ISI, which seeks to destabilize Bangladesh to serve its own anti-India agenda. If vengeance becomes state policy, no government can sustain.
Will Bangladesh Learn From Ukraine’s Mistakes?
A stark lesson can be drawn from Ukraine’s miscalculations. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, in his eagerness to challenge Russia, believed NATO and the US would provide unwavering support. However, after losing vast territory and 50,000 soldiers, he now finds himself isolated, as even Trump now demands resources in exchange for military aid.
Muhammad Yunus must take heed. National interests come first—not ideological battles or foreign backing. If Bangladesh alienates its natural ally, India, it may find itself in an irreversible downward spiral.
If Bangladesh ignores India’s support and flirts with hostile foreign powers, it risks economic ruin and political instability.
The Road Ahead: A Choice Between Progress And Regression
Bangladesh must now decide: Will it emerge as a liberal, secular democracy, or fall into the hands of fundamentalists and foreign interests? The world is watching.
—The writer is Vice-Chancellor, National Law Institute University, Bhopal