Though assembly polls are months away, political parties have already started campaigning in an attempt to be first off the block
By Vipin Pubby in Chandigarh
There are still nine months to go for Punjab assembly elections but major political parties are already in poll mode. Besides organizing a show of strength at various rallies, they have started working at the grassroots level and appear to be taking no chances.
The seriousness with which these parties are taking the polls is reflected in the fact that both the Congress and the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) have declared that the names of their party candidates would be announced six months ahead of elections. This is a far cry from the way the Congress conducted itself in the run-up to the 2012 assembly elections, when the names of some of its candidates were announced just a day before nominations were to close. In a couple of instances, the party ticket was changed at the last hour. Undoubtedly, the late decision harmed the party’s prospects, with those denied tickets working against the party nominee. The leadership also failed to reach out to the rebels. The Congress lost out with just 1.86 percent fewer votes than what was polled by the SAD-BJP combine. The Congress won 46 seats out of 117.
AAP RACES AHEAD
While the AAP is the new entrant here, it is ahead of its rivals in reaching out to people. The party has set up ward-wise committees, which no other rival has done so far. It has also launched a “parivaar jodo” program, where volunteers visit households and ask them to put a flag or poster outside their houses to support it. The party claims that the volunteers have already contacted over eight lakh households and that the program will continue till they meet all households in rural areas.
The AAP is looking forward to filling in the political vacuum which it believes the state is witnessing due to “public anger and frustration” with both the Congress and the ruling coalition partners—Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD) and the BJP. After its phenomenal success in the Delhi elections, it has now set its eyes on Punjab, where it won all its four Lok Sabha seats in the 2014 general elections. And it believes that it stands an excellent chance to form a government here. One of the first pre-poll surveys, HuffPost-CVoter, predicted that the AAP was set to win 94 to 100 assembly seats out of a total of 117. The survey has placed the Congress at a distant second with 8 to 14 seats, while the SAD-BJP is expected to win a paltry 6 to 12 seats.
Buoyed by the claims of the survey and wanting to repeat its Delhi performance in Punjab, the party has been working diligently to make a mark. Party supremo and Delhi chief minister Arvind Kejriwal has himself been spending time in Punjab and promised to visit it more frequently in the months to come. He proved to be quite a crowd-puller when he addressed an AAP rally at the historic Maghi Mela in Muktsar earlier this year. Media-persons reported an unusual phenomenon where Congress and Akali workers, who were ferried to the site in buses and tractor trolleys, walked over to the AAP rally to listen to Kejriwal!
SAD STATE
It was even reported widely that while preparing for the next political rally at Baisakhi Mela in Talwandi Saboo, a rattled SAD president and deputy chief minister Sukhbir Singh Badal exhorted party leaders to put their supporters through a pledge that they would not attend the AAP rally. And despite the fact that Kejriwal and his deputy, Manish Sisodia who was supposed to address the rally, could not turn up, the AAP rally received good response.
During his visits to the state, Kejriwal has made it a point to visit victims of terrorist attacks and families of farmers who had allegedly committed suicide due to debts. He has been able to muster good support even though political rivals call him and his party with disdain as the “topiwallas”. He has promised to camp in the state during the coming weeks and is personally looking at the campaign strategy.
Meanwhile, the SAD-BJP combine is looking at a hat-trick after a decade-long rule and has drawn up its own strategy. It has started projecting its achievements through a media blitzkrieg and is organizing a series of public meetings called “Sadbhavna” rallies. It is also closely watching the developments in the Congress and the AAP.
SAD, which claims to represent the Sikh Panth, has sharpened its stand on issues relating to the Sikh religion and clergy. It had to grapple with a string of sacrilegious acts last year when copies of the Guru Granth Sahib were found strewn across several villages of the state. It was obviously well-planned and these incidents caused much resentment in the state. While the opposition alleges that it was a ploy to divert the attention of the people from other pressing issues like the farmers’ agitation, the government claimed that radical groups had indulged in the acts to inflame passions and vitiate the peaceful atmosphere in the state.
SAD’s alliance partner, the BJP, too has started its campaign with the unprecedented step of making a Dalit leader the state party chief. Vijay Sampla, a first-time MP, who was earlier inducted in the Union ministry, has been appointed with a clear eye on the 32 percent Dalit vote in the state.
SERIOUS ISSUES
All the three major contenders have, however, serious problems to tackle before they make a bid to rule the state. The ruling coalition will be hard put to explain the continuing corruption and maladministration despite claims to the contrary. There are many factors which can go against them—deep resentment among farmers due to successive crop failures and scams in the purchase of seeds, failure to give a boost to the industry, growing unemployment, anger of contractual employees against their non-regularization, mafia controlling mining and trade, failure to fulfill the promises made in the manifesto and arrogance of power.
For the AAP, the biggest negative factor is the lack of a face to its campaign. The party cannot expect to win the elections with Kejriwal as the mascot. It lacks a credible leader in the state, particularly a Sikh one, who can be a respectable chief ministerial candidate. It also does not have known leaders in various constituencies and has even taken leaders and workers without adequate background screening.
As for the Congress, it continues to be its own enemy. After a three-year-long struggle to remove the state party chief, Partap Singh Bajwa, the party’s command was handed over to ex-CM Capt Amarinder Singh. However, his hands were tied with frequent interference from the party high command. Even the candidates announced by him for two Rajya Sabha seats were changed, leaving him red-faced. While it was a foregone conclusion that with his appointment as state party chief he would be the chief ministerial candidate, Congress vice-president Rahul Gandhi gave him a cold shoulder during his much-hyped visit here where he was supposed to be making this announcement.
All the three contenders will have to put their house in order before voters give their verdict.