There are lessons to be gleaned from Bihar’s stupendous poll results for the Modi-Amit Shah duo as they face elections in other states. At the same time, how will Nitish handle a strong ally like Lalu?
By Kalyani Shankar
The Bihar election results have shown once again that the ultimate power rests with the voter against the might of money and muscle power. The voter has showed his power whenever poli-ticians erred earlier too. This happened after the Emergency when the Janata government did not perform, when Rajiv Gandhi failed to make use of his mandate, when the Congress was involved in corruption and when the BJP thought India was shining when it was not. So, the power of the voter and his capacity not to be misread is there. This is more so in the case of Bihar where voters are highly conscious of political nuances. It is indeed a tribute to Biharis that they have also made it clear that India be-lieves in pluralism.
The major political message from Bihar is that the honeymoon with Modi is over. The Bihar defeat, coming almost nine months after the BJP rout in the Delhi assembly polls, has shown that the Modi magic is on the wane. No doubt it was a fight between Modi and two other excellent communicators, Nitish Kumar and Lalu Prasad Yadav. In this one-against-two fight, Modi lost, proving that the BJP is on a decline and not on the ascendency. The BJP is at the crossroads and there is a need to decide whether to go the Hindutva way or go for development.
MANY LESSONS
Bihar has conveyed several other lessons. The first is that the Grand Alliance got the arithmetic right, while the BJP was depending on chemistry. They even got their caste arithmetic right. It was the BJP versus the rest and the rest won the day. The three major alliance partners—the JD(U), the RJD and the Congress—managed to transfer each other’s votes so that the combine could win a two-thirds’ majority. NDA partners like Pappu Yadav, Ram Vilas Paswan, Jitin Ram Manjhi and Upendra Kushwaha were not able to perform well. The BJP’s pipedream that it would go on expanding its base while others would disappear did not work.
The second is that people preferred the Bihar model and not the Gujarat one. Bihar chief minister Nitish Kumar did not face any anti-incumbency and on the contrary, he won due to his work. Apart from the caste combination, Nitish has carefully nurtured a constituency—women. He earned it by providing 50 percent reservation for women in panchayats and providing cycles to girls and through positive discrimination. This created a huge impact among women. From 2005, he also nurtured the lower backward castes, Dalits and aspirational youth. In short, Brand Modi failed while Brand Nitish won.
Modi should analyze the results and wonder why he lost. Was it due to his arrogance? Was it due to his wrong alliance? Or was it because he had not learnt any lesson from the Delhi assembly polls?
The third message is that a negative and vicious campaign does not work. On the contrary, it went against the BJP. The BJP campaign, particularly after the second phase, was of a low level and hit the Grand Alliance below the belt. Also, the old style door-to-door campaign of Nitish worked better than Modi’s helicopter campaign. The BJP shifted poll issues midway from development to Hindutva, creating confusion in the minds of voters. Some issues like reservation, beef and meat ban, silence about intolerance, communalism and irresponsible statements from BJP leaders also had a negative impact. People would like Bihar to move on and talk about development, jobs and progress.
The fourth is Modi and Amit Shah’s poll strategy did not work. Over-projection of Modi and Amit Shah and not projecting a chief ministerial candidate were mistakes on the part of the BJP. Nobody can accuse them of not working hard. They put in a lot of money and energy but what was lacking was the involvement of the entire Bihar unit at one level and the national unit at another level. Several important leaders were not utilized for the Bihar campaign as the Modi-Shah duo thought that they could swing the vote by Modi’s sheer magic.
The fifth message is that the Grand Old Party, the Congress, is not completely irrelevant in Bihar. After all, 27 of its MLAs won. The strike rate is huge, as the party has won seven times its present strength in the assembly. Whether it is because of the Grand Alliance or because the party had revived is yet to be seen, but it has given a boost to the Congress. So is this beginning of the revival of the Congress? Does the Bihar experience mean that it will piggyback ride on coalition partners in the states too?
NITISH’S RESPONSIBILITY
The post-poll scenario is quite interesting. Now that the Grand Alliance has won, the massive mandate comes with huge responsibilities. Just like Delhi chief minister Arvind Kejriwal is struggling to meet huge expectations from Delhi voters, so too Nitish Kumar has a big responsibility of governance and development of Bihar. For this, he needs the help of the center but will Modi help him? Will he deliver the `1.25 lakh crore package he had promised during the campaign?
Secondly, the alliance has to stand the test of time. There is always the danger of Lalu pulling out of the coalition. Moreover, will Nitish have a free hand to choose his ministers? Will Lalu interfere in the administration of Bihar in transfers and postings? Right now, they are lost in the clouds, but will they remain together for long? There are no straight answers as only time will tell. There have been apprehensions about ego clashes between Lalu and Nitish and Lalu and Rahul Gandhi. If they break up on some issue be-fore the Lok Sabha polls, that will be the end of their unity.
Thirdly, Lalu has indicated that Nitish would remain in Patna while he will go around the country launching a campaign against the BJP. This means that he will don the role of a national leader. This is in the context of media speculation whether Nitish would be the challenger to Modi in the next Lok Sabha polls. Lalu has supported Nitish as chief minister, but will he support him as prime ministerial candidate? Moreover, the massive victory has once again led to speculation of the Janata Parivar coming together and the merger of the RJD and the JD (U). If this happens, it could pose a challenge to the BJP in the coming elections.
As for the BJP, it is a wake-up call for Modi and Amit Shah. The Bihar defeat could have a domino effect on the five state assembly polls scheduled next year. Kerala, Assam, West Bengal, Tamil Nadu and Puduchery do not have a strong presence of the BJP and the party has to face strong regional parties.
Will Modi make some mid-course corrections both in the party and the government? That brings us to the question whether BJP chief Amit Shah will be sacked or rewarded with another term. There is a lot of discontent among party leaders that they have been ignored. Will this be corrected?
As of now, the criticism of the Modi-Shah duo is loud and clear. It will gain a few decibels if there is another defeat.
SPEED UP ECONOMY
Modi’s first priority should be the economy and speeding up the reform process. Inter-national credit rating agency Moody’s has warned the prime minister that he may lose his credibility internationally now that Bihar is lost. This credibility has to be restored. Where possible, some measures could be pushed through administrative orders. But getting them through parliament may be a problem now with the weakening of the BJP, as the belligerent opposition led by the Cong-ress will stall business in the Winter Session. Modi should also make sure that the floor management is better and reach out to the opposition. A little humility on his part would go a long way.
Another important thing is to assess the performance of his cabinet and throw out non-performers and induct talent, even from outside if necessary.
There is criticism that all decisions are centralized at the PMO; Modi should decentralize decision-making and take action against those ministers who had made controversial statements during the Bihar polls. He has announced many schemes like Make in India, Swachh Bharat and Skill India, but these need better monitoring.
It is time Modi concentrates on delivering his 2014 electoral promises. It has been 18 months and nothing much is seen on the ground. People do not want speeches but results. Bihar should teach him this lesson.