By Annunthra Rangan
The public uprising in 2022 in Sri Lanka that led to presidential polls this year was sparked by an acute financial collapse, including severe shortages of essential commodities, skyrocketing inflation, and depleted foreign reserves. Protesters not only demanded reforms, but also called for a complete overhaul of the existing political system, emphasising the need for a systemic change.
The ongoing economic crisis remains the most pressing concern for Sri Lankans. It is not merely a financial emergency, but a humanitarian disaster. Citizens endured long queues for basic necessities like fuel and cooking gas, while inflation soared to record levels. Amid this turmoil, the presidential election shifted focus from traditional party politics to national survival and recovery. The electorate was faced with a pivotal decision between maintaining continuity or pursuing radical change.
In a landmark political shift, Anura Kumara Dissanayake, leader of the left-leaning National People’s Power (NPP), triumphed in the presidential election held in September 2024. His victory marked a decisive end to decades of dominance by traditional political dynasties, including the Rajapaksa family. Dissanayake, 50, campaigned on a platform to combat corruption and recover misappropriated assets, resonating with a populace still grappling with the aftermath of a severe financial crisis.
Dissanayake secured a strong mandate, defeating prominent contenders such as incumbent President Ranil Wickremesinghe, who garnered a mere 17 percent of the votes, and Namal Rajapaksa, son of former president Mahinda Rajapaksa, who managed less than 3 percent. This result underscores a significant shift in the electorate’s priorities, with the NPP’s anti-establishment and anti-corruption rhetoric finding favour across demographics.
At the forefront, this election had four prominent candidates, each offering distinct visions for Sri Lanka’s future. However, the candidates varied significantly in terms of popularity and the support they commanded.
The Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP), led by Namal Rajapaksa—son of former president Mahinda Rajapaksa—faced declining public support. The Rajapaksa family, which has been a supreme force in Sri Lankan politics for nearly two decades, has seen its credibility erode following the country’s economic collapse. Namal’s candidacy struggled to resonate with an electorate seeking accountability for the crises attributed to the Rajapaksa-led administration.
Ranil Wickremesinghe, the incumbent president, assumed office following Gotabaya Rajapaksa’s resignation and positioned himself as a stabilising figure during turbulent times. Running as an independent, Wickremesinghe focused on securing international financial assistance, including IMF loans, to stabilise the economy. However, his reliance on austerity measures had drawn criticism from those who feel such policies fail to address the immediate hardships of ordinary citizens.
The next on the line was Sajith Premadasa, leader of the Samagi Jana Balawegaya (SJB), who presented himself as a centrist alternative with a focus on economic justice and social welfare. Premadasa’s platform included poverty alleviation, improved public services, and prioritising the needs of an average citizen. As the son of former President Ranasinghe Premadasa, he carried both the advantage of name recognition and the challenge of being perceived as part of the political establishment.
Dissanayake represented a coalition of leftist and social democratic parties, grassroots organisations, and trade unions. Riding on the momentum of the Aragalaya protests, Dissanayake emerged as a key advocate for systemic change. His campaign focused on combating corruption, rebuilding public trust, and restructuring the economy to prioritise ordinary citizens. His message has particularly resonated with younger voters and those disillusioned with traditional politics which gave him away the throne.
Before this electoral success, the NPP held just three seats in Sri Lanka’s 225-member parliament. In a strategic move after being elected president, Dissanayake dissolved parliament and called for fresh elections. The NPP’s subsequent legislative victory grants the new president the necessary leverage to implement his reformist agenda, particularly in addressing poverty and systemic corruption.
Dissanayake has demonstrated a pragmatic approach to maintaining strong relations with India, marking a slight shift in the dynamics of Sri Lanka’s foreign policy. Earlier this year, he visited India at the invitation of Indian officials and held discussions with India’s External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar and National Security Advisor Ajit Doval. Following his election as president, Dissanayake promptly responded to India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s congratulatory message, highlighting a willingness to collaborate closely with India. One of his first official engagements post-election was a meeting with the Indian High Commissioner in Colombo, signalling his intent to prioritise bilateral ties.
Dissanayake has openly acknowledged India’s crucial support during Sri Lanka’s economic crisis in 2022, particularly highlighting the financial and material assistance that played a pivotal role in stabilising the nation. India extended approximately $4 billion in credit, including a $400 million currency swap and deferrals on trade liabilities worth $500 million for imports. This timely intervention was instrumental in mitigating the impact of Sri Lanka’s financial meltdown. Additionally, India’s humanitarian aid, which included essential goods and services, provided the much-needed relief to the Sri Lankan population during their time of acute hardship.
India’s proactive role in facilitating Sri Lanka’s debt restructuring process further stressed its importance. India was the first country to issue a letter of support to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), enabling Sri Lanka to commence the debt restructuring process. This initiative not only reinforced India’s reputation as a dependable neighbour, but also bolstered its influence across the Sri Lankan political spectrum, as the recent elections saw India being portrayed in a largely positive light.
This goodwill has yielded concrete results for India, including agreements to develop the Trincomalee oil tank farm and a 100-megawatt power plant in Sampur, led by India’s National Thermal Power Corporation, highlighting the strengthening of economic and strategic relations. Additionally, Sri Lanka’s decision to revoke a Chinese company’s licence to construct a micro electricity grid near India’s border highlights the friendship and trust between the two countries. As Dissanayake assumes leadership, the evolving relationship offers both opportunities and challenges.
Dissanayake’s reference to a “New Renaissance” talks about his vision of fostering collaboration with New Delhi, based on shared strengths and a commitment to regional security. Under his leadership, the trajectory of India-Sri Lanka relations is expected to focus on deepening economic cooperation, ensuring regional stability, and reducing Chinese influence. While his presidency presents opportunities for India to expand its strategic engagement, it also brings challenges, particularly as Dissanayake’s skepticism towards foreign dominance could lead to a recalibration of external partnerships, including a reassessment of Chinese-led projects that have raised concerns in New Delhi.
India’s strategic interests in Sri Lanka stem from the island’s proximity to its southern coast and its critical position in the Indian Ocean. Modi’s swift outreach following Dissanayake’s election reflects India’s intent to build upon the substantial $4 billion assistance package extended during Sri Lanka’s economic crisis. Areas such as infrastructure, energy, and trade offer promising avenues for collaboration. Dissanayake’s commitment to reducing foreign exploitation, especially through renegotiating controversial Chinese investments, aligns with India’s goal of curbing Beijing’s regional influence. However, his firm stance on sovereignty suggests a balanced foreign policy, where India may not always be favoured, but will remain a key partner in Colombo’s strategic calculus.
Dissanayake’s approach to foreign relations is likely to be defined by efforts to reduce Sri Lanka’s reliance on China while strengthening ties with regional allies like India. His critique of debt-driven Chinese projects and commitment to renegotiating inequitable deals could lead to a more pragmatic and transactional relationship with Beijing. This shift offers India an opportunity to position itself as a reliable partner by providing sustainable and mutually beneficial alternatives, particularly in infrastructure and development.
The treatment of Sri Lanka’s Tamil minority, a sensitive and historic issue, will also play a critical role in shaping bilateral ties. India, with its deep cultural and political connections to Tamil communities across the Palk Strait, will closely monitor how Dissanayake addresses reconciliation and equality. Any actions that alienate the Tamil population in Sri Lanka could risk straining relations with New Delhi, making it essential for his administration to adopt an inclusive approach to governance.
In navigating the delicate balance between India and China, Dissanayake is likely to adopt a selective engagement strategy. While seeking to renegotiate contentious deals such as the Hambantota Port agreement, he may continue to welcome Chinese investments under stricter terms. Simultaneously, India’s alignment with his vision for national sovereignty positions it as an ideal partner for security cooperation, maritime collaboration, and sustainable development.
India can further leverage its soft power through cultural diplomacy, shared civilizational ties, and support for Sri Lanka’s democratic institutions. Cooperation under the SAGAR (Security and Growth for All in the Region) framework could enhance joint efforts in regional security, counter-terrorism, and environmental sustainability. India’s expanding involvement in Sri Lanka’s energy, infrastructure, and technological sectors will not only promote economic growth, but also strengthen bilateral ties for long-term stability.
Sri Lanka’s foreign policy under Dissanayake marks a departure from the traditional alignment with either India or China, signalling a shift towards non-alignment and prioritizing the nation’s sovereign interests on the global stage. His approach underscores a balanced engagement with both regional powers, reflecting a nuanced understanding of Sri Lanka’s geopolitical and economic realities.
A cornerstone of Dissanayake’s strategy is the pursuit of a non-aligned foreign policy that carefully navigates the complexities of regional dynamics. By fostering balanced relationships with India and China, he seeks to avoid the overdependence that has previously strained Sri Lanka’s strategic autonomy. This vision was evident during his diplomatic visit to India in February 2024, where he emphasized strengthening bilateral ties while steadfastly upholding Sri Lanka’s sovereignty and core interests.
Acknowledging the critical role of both India and China in Sri Lanka’s post-crisis recovery, Dissanayake has articulated a pragmatic approach to foreign investment. His administration aims to attract investments in sectors such as renewable energy, where local capacity is limited. By leveraging economic partnerships with both nations, Sri Lanka aspires to enhance economic resilience while steering clear of unsustainable debt, a challenge that has plagued past engagements, particularly with China.
On matters of national security and defence, Dissanayake has assured India of maintaining constructive and cooperative relations. This assurance addresses India’s longstanding concerns about China’s growing influence in the region, especially following the contentious Hambantota Port leasing agreement. Dissanayake’s approach reflects an awareness of India’s strategic priorities and a commitment to mitigating any security implications associated with Chinese presence in Sri Lanka.
Through a balanced and forward-looking foreign policy, Dissanayake positions Sri Lanka as a proactive player in regional diplomacy, prioritising the protection of its sovereignty and the advancement of its national development goals. In the coming days, his leadership approach is expected to offer greater clarity on the direction Sri Lanka will take under his stewardship.
—The writer is a Research Officer at Chennai Centre for China Studies. Her research interests constitute China-WANA (West Asia and North Africa) relations and human rights