By Col R Hariharan
The swearing-in of an interim government in Bangladesh on August 9, 2024, after the student-led protests snowballed into a mass movement forcing Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina to flee, has raised many questions about the future of the country.
After spending the better part of my life as an intelligencer, happenings in Bangladesh from June to August have proved to me that intelligence is a 24×7 business. It also showed that even the best of intelligence forecasts can fail Alpha rulers like Hasina. It also failed her father Mujibur Rahman, the founding father of Bangladesh, when he turned into an Alpha ruler after coming to power with overwhelming support.
Once in power, both father and daughter freely used the iron fist to suppress protests and opposition. That probably made them deaf to cautions of growing distrust among the people from intelligence sleuths. Mujib ignored India’s friendly intelligence warnings of an impending plot against him. He paid the ultimate price when he was slaughtered in 1975 with his wife and three sons in his home by a group of army officers on his birthday on August 15.
Ironically, the same house—32 Dhanmondi, Dhaka—preserved as a Bangabandhu Memorial Museum, was set on fire on August 5 this year by miscreants during the Non-Cooperation Protest Movement (NCPM). When some people gathered at the ruined residence to pay their respects on Mujib’s birthday, “miscreants” opened fire killing one person.
Even as the Museum was set on fire, continuous telecasts showed jubilant mobs vandalising the statue of Bangabandhu to bring it down. The scene was reminiscent of the destruction of Saddam Hussain’s statue in Iraq when he was out of power. On that day, local media estimated the crowds on the streets at four lakhs. The day before, as many as 98 people, including 14 police officers, were killed. It took the tally of those killed since the protests began in July to at least 300.
Hasina is a great survivor, having escaped 19 assassination attempts in her four-decade-long political career. She was able to flee the country to safety in New Delhi on August 5, after Bangladesh army chief General Waker-Uz-Zaman withdrew support to her. She resigned a day later after the army chief announced that the armed forces would install an interim administration to run the government.
Army’s Choice
The day after Hasina fled, the president dissolved the parliament. With that, the army chief probably succeeded in carrying out a soft coup with the installation of an interim government with Nobel laureate Mohammad Yunus as chief adviser. The 84-year-old Yunus is a member of the Nobel laureates club. He is well networked with the US government. He is linked to the Clinton Foundation. He is also a recipient of POTUS’ 2009 Presidential Medal of Freedom.
More than all that, Yunus has no love lost for Hasina. In 2007, Yunus came up with the idea of forming a political party, Citizen’s Power, to combat corruption and polarisation of power among a few leaders. Hasina saw him as a challenger to her quest for political power. After coming to power in 2008, her government began a series of investigations into Yunus’ activities. She criticised Grameen’s microlending practices, accusing Yunus of taking credit for poverty reduction efforts of her government that reduced poverty significantly over the last 15 years. Her government’s prosecution of Yunus and 13 others on June 14 on charges of embezzlement of Taka 252.2 million ($2 million) from the workers welfare fund of Grameen Telecom drew adverse international attention.
One hundred Nobel Laureates, including former POTUS Barack Obama, wrote an open letter to Hasina, urging an end to what they described as “continuous judicial harassment”. The UN human rights body raised concerns about the ongoing harassment and smear campaigns from the “highest levels of government” which could jeopardise a fair trial. It also probably influenced the World Bank’s decision to withdraw funding from the Padma Bridge project, a major infrastructure project.
In this context, the US State Department’s interest in the whole Yunus affair is interesting. On July 9, spokesperson Mathew Miller said: “We continue to monitor closely developments in the case against him. We have expressed for some time our concern that these cases may represent a misuse of Bangladesh’s labour laws to harass and intimidate Dr Yunus.” He cautioned that such “perceived misuse of labour and anti-corruption laws could raise questions about rule of law and dissuade future foreign direct investment”. In any case, since then, the Dhaka tribunal has dismissed the case against Yunus and 13 others after the Anti-Corruption Commission withdrew the charges in August.
Interim Government
The Bangladesh president’s decision to install an interim government was taken after obtaining a legal advisory from the Supreme Court of Bangladesh. This is because the Bangladesh constitution does not have a provision for an interim government.
Tariq Ahmed, a foreign law specialist in the Global Law Research Directorate writing on the subject in the “Library of Congress” blog, says Article 123(3)(b) of the Constitution “stipulates that if parliament is dissolved for any other reason before the end of its term, general elections must be held within ninety days after such dissolution”. Moreover, Articles 58(4) & 57(3) provide that the prime minister [and existing ministers] continue to “hold office until his [or her] successor has entered upon office” if he or she resigns or ceases to hold office.
However, the president was faced with a legal conundrum, as neither the Hasina government nor the parliament existed. The president, through the Ministry of Law, Justice, and Parliamentary Affairs, sought a legal advisory from the Supreme Court whether an interim government could be formed under the unusual circumstances. A full bench of the Appellate Division on the same day issued a ruling “in favour of the formation of the interim government”, stating that “an interim government can be formed with a chief adviser and a few other advisers in the absence of parliament”. After receiving the advice, only then was the interim government sworn in.
The interim government, grappling with problems of restoring administration and law and order, may not be able to conduct a general election within 90 days (i.e. first week of November) of the dissolution of parliament as stipulated in the Constitution. In such a case, the interim government may have to take recourse to the “Doctrine of Necessity”.
The Doctrine is a legal principle that permits administrative authorities to take extraordinary actions in emergencies or when upholding constitutional principles. These actions are considered lawful even if they violate established laws, norms or conventions.
Yunus’ Mission
Chief Adviser Yunus has been speaking of his broad vision to establish good governance, democracy and human rights in the country. Broadly, he wants to carry out institutional reforms by forming six commissions to carry out systemic changes required for conducting fair elections, tone up police administration, judiciary, eradicate corruption, improve public administration and identify changes required in the Constitution to implement them.
While Yunus’ national vision building is laudable, it is beyond the scope of the mandate of the interim government. Its mandate is limited to restoring public confidence in democratic governance to conduct free and fair parliamentary elections before the first week of November. An elected government will have both the legal mandate and machinery to realise Yunus’ national vision in the long term.
Yunus and his team must get into mission mode and evolve a plan to identify time-based goals and tasks to achieve them. The first task will be to restore law and order so that the administrative machinery can meet the needs of the people to resume their normal life. This process seems to have already started. However, sustaining it will require the creation of a safe environment for people to pursue their normal avocations. This does not exist now.
Prothom Alo, a pro-interim government newspaper, reported that 1,068 houses and businesses owned by Hindus were attacked between August 5 and 20. Some 22 temples were also destroyed. The government should not dismiss them as acts of miscreants, but take strict action to curb such lawless activity by fringe elements of Jamaat and Islamic parties. Yunus’ government needs to walk the talk on this aspect.
Safe Environment
The second task will be to create a safe environment. The police and administrative machinery are alleged to have been weakened by corruption and cronyism during the rule of the Hasina government. It will require identifying and weeding out corrupt elements in the government machinery. Several notable figures have been arrested mostly on charges of corruption, embezzling of public funds and unlawful conduct. These include former infrastructure minister Obaidul Quader, General Secretary of the Awami League; former home minister Asaduzzaman Khan; former IG of Police Shafiqul Islam and former Chief of Army Staff Lt General Aziz Ahmed. Several other people, including around 150 journalists, have been arrested. While these arrests are part of the crackdown on corruption, they should not end as a witch hunt. Otherwise, it will be making a mockery of the rule of law.
Lastly, Bangladesh’s financial crunch. As of July 2024, Bangladesh foreign exchange reserves stood at about $25.8 billion. This is a significant decrease from the peak of $48 billion plus in August 2021. In addition to the global economic downturn, deteriorating trade conditions since June have affected the manufacturing and export sector. In this environment, the government should not waste time in approaching the IMF for a loan as it is a time-consuming process. It is best to leave it to the elected government which will be the legitimate way of handling it.
Instead, the interim government should focus on retaining the existing win-win relationship with India, built during Hasina’s tenure. Both Sri Lanka and Maldives have veered round to the economic wisdom of retaining friendly relations with India.
Bangladesh’s debt, specifically owed to India, is approximately $3.5 billion. This debt is through various lines of credit extended by India for infrastructure development, energy projects and other bilateral cooperation initiatives. Indian private investments in Bangladesh are around $11 billion. This includes around $9 billion in the energy sector with regard to power generation and transmission, around $2 billion for infrastructure, some $500 million for the pharmaceutical sector, $300 million in automobile manufacturing and assembly plants, $200 million in the FMCG sector and some $150 million in the edible oil sector.
These projects provide livelihood for thousands of Bangladeshis. Leave it to the elected government to investigate these investment agreements for corruption. The interim government should not allow political posturing to satisfy wounded egos to take over foreign policy decision making. This is more so when the government is facing a financial crunch.
As political analyst Fareed Zakaria said: “Foreign policy is a matter of costs and benefits, not theology.”
Yunus’ Cabinet
As chief adviser, Yunus has appointed advisers from a pool of experienced civil servants, retired army officers, academia, legal eagles and civil society activists, including three student activist leaders. Among the 19 advisers, two are women and two are from minority communities. Yunus is in-charge of the cabinet and the armed forces divisions. He is being assisted by three special assistants with hands on experience to manage the portfolios of the two divisions and also maintain liaison with the student bodies.
- Former Cabinet Secretary Ali Imam Majumder (66) will probably take care of the departments of Food and Civil Administration. His experience as chairman of Bangla Biman, the national airline, should help him in dealing with the civil aviation and tourism departments. He is also a civil society activist, associated with Transparency International Bangladesh since 2016. He is also an executive member of Citizens for Good Governance. Majumder had been a vocal critic of the aberrations in the functioning of Hasina’s government.
- Retired Lt General Abdul Hafiz, former Chief of General Staff, is special assistant to Yunus on matters related to defence and national integrity. During his military career, he attended courses in China and the US. He is a graduate of the Defence Intelligence College of France. He has served as Force Commander of the UN Mission in Western Sahara and Ivory Coast.
- Special Assistant Mohammed Mahfuz Alam is a student activist and coordinator of the Anti-discrimination Students Movement (ADSM) and Non-Cooperation Movement–2024. He will be providing Yunus direct link to the student bodies spearheading the agitation.
—The writer is a retired military intelligence specialist on South Asia associated with the Chennai Centre for China Studies