India’s decision to fence the 1,643 km-long border with Myanmar and abolition of the Free Movement Regime stems from its concerns about the country’s civil war threatening the security of north-east states
By Col R Hariharan
The spill-over effect of the civil war in Myanmar, going on since the Tatmadaw (armed forces) seized the country on February 1, 2021, is reminiscent of what Satyajit Ray’s 1973 classic movie Ashani Sankhet (Distant Thunder) depicts. The movie shows the social impact of World War II, resulting in famine in a distant village in Bengal far from the battlefront. The movie’s allegorical portrayal of the indifference, political corruption and apathy of those in power aptly describes the situation in Myanmar.
Throughout its history, democracy in Myanmar has had a perilous existence. Since 1960, it has grappled with military dominance, ethnic conflicts and human rights violations. Since then, the Tatmadaw (armed forces) had been playing a pivotal role in shaping the country’s troubled journey through various models of controlled democracy. Even the present so-called “democratic” constitution introduced in 2008 was conceived largely by the Tatmadaw. It is designed to legitimise Tatmadaw’s role in both executive and legislature.
The constitution ensures that one-fourth of the seats in both the upper and lower houses are filled by nominees of Tatmadaw. Two vice-presidents, the ministers of border areas and internal affairs are nominated by the army. The anachronism is that the army chief, General Min Aung Hlaing, running the military government through the State Administrative Council (SAC), now talks of “truly democratic elections” after himself overthrowing the democratically elected government.
The Myanmar civil war is also impacting India in many ways. Internally, it has introduced an uncertain external factor in the sensitive north-eastern states bordering Myanmar. In the election year, it can queer the government’s pitch to develop the north-eastern region.
The ambitious allocations for this region’s development during the financial year 2023-24 have a budget outlay of Rs 5,892 crore. This is 114% higher than the revised estimate for 2022-23 of Rs 2,755 crore. The Northeast Special Infrastructure Development Scheme at Rs 2,491 crore is about 67% higher than the amount allotted for 2022-23. Lastly, the allocation for Prime Minister’s Development Initiative for North-East scheme at Rs 2,200 crore is four and half times that of last year.
Many ethnic insurgent groups in the north-east have links across the border in Myanmar. The government is negotiating with a few of them in Assam, Nagaland and Manipur to bring them back to the mainstream. The success of insurgent groups across the border and the sight of over 1,200 Tatmadaw soldiers fleeing from the intense fighting and seeking refuge in the border states can embolden Indian ethnic insurgent groups too.
The impact of Myanmar’s civil war close to the border areas has spurred the Union home ministry to come up with a proposal to fence the 1,643 km-long border with Myanmar. It will run through Arunachal Pradesh, Nagaland, Manipur and end in Mizoram. New Delhi has also announced the abolition of the Free Movement Regime (FMR), which had allowed the local population on both sides of the border to travel without a visa up to 17 km.
The FMR was part of PM Narendra Modi’s Act East Policy to encourage border trade between the two neighbours. During 2020-21, the bilateral border trade reached $197 million, nearly double the previous year’s figure of $105 million. The ministry of external affairs said “the trade relationship plays a crucial role in enhancing economic ties and connectivity between India and Myanmar, especially given their shared border and cultural affinities”. However, after the civil war started, the border trade came to a screeching halt.
The proposal to fence the border as well as to cancel the FMR facility has received mixed reactions in the north-east. After the conflict between the Meiteis and the Kukis in May 2023, Manipur is limping back to normalcy. Manipur Chief Minister N Biren Singh has welcomed the proposal to fence the border as it will to prevent illegal smuggling of drugs and trafficking of people. It also suits him politically to keep the delicate ethnic balance in the state, precariously perched between the Meiteis and the Kukis.
On the other hand, Mizoram CM Lalduhoma has urged Union Home Minister Amit Shah not to fence the Mizoram-Myanmar section of the border even if it is erected in Manipur. Civil society members of the state have also appealed to Shah not to fence the state border and not to abolish the free movement of tribals across the border. Their concern is for the tribal kins living in conflict areas in Chin state in Myanmar. The Mizoram government is sheltering 31,000 Chin refugees who fled the conflict there. They include families of Chin National Army members fighting for self-determination in a federal union. Interestingly, about 12,000 Kuki-Zo people escaping from the Manipur tribal conflict had also sought refuge with their kinsmen in Mizoram, emphasising the strong tribal identity of the region.
A disturbing aspect of the civil war, not widely reported, is the significant increase in drug trade after the military coup in Myanmar. According to a report from the UN Office of Drugs and Crime (UNDOC), the area under poppy cultivation in Myanmar increased by 33% in 2022, reversing the downward trend started in 2014. Moreh in Manipur and Champhai in Mizoram are the favoured entry points for heroin and meth from Myanmar. According a Diplomat report, drugs like ephedrine, acetic anhydride and pseudoephedrine, used for manufacture of addictive drugs, are procured in India and smuggled to Myanmar. Drugs worth over Rs 2,000 crore have reportedly been seized in north-eastern states from Myanmar smugglers during 2022-23, and over 300 people, including Myanmar nationals, have been arrested. A report in The Hindu throws light on the ingenuity of Indian smugglers. It says smugglers in Mizoram used excavators to build a 10-km jeep track in Myanmar to create a new route for drug traffic, avoiding Manipur after the civil war shifted close to its border with Myanmar.
So from an internal security perspective, the fencing of the border as well as cancelling FMR makes eminent sense. But these measures have the potential to set the clock back on the Act East Policy, in which Myanmar has a key role in furthering India’s strategic, political and trade links with ASEAN. The Policy had a stimulating start in Myanmar in 2018-19. In spite of the western embargo on Myanmar after the coup, in 2021-22, India’s overall imports from Myanmar increased by 90.19%, while exports grew by 15.53% compared to the previous year.
India’s total investment in Myanmar as of March 2023 stands at $1.736 billion. This is across various sectors, including telecommunications, energy and aviation. Some of the major Indian companies investing in the country for several years include big pharma companies such as Ranbaxy, Wockhardt and Cipla. India has made strategic investment in the Shwe oil and gas project since 2002. ONGC Videsh Ltd (OVL) is part of a consortium that includes companies from South Korea, India and Myanmar which are actively involved in exploration and development. The project has been generating positive cash flow since 2014. In fact, the Cabinet Committee on Economic Affairs chaired by the PM approved additional investment of $121.27 million by OVL for further development of blocks A1 and A3. This has become an important part of Act East Policy’s concept of developing Energy Bridges with immediate neighbours.
Kaladan Multi Modal Transit (KMMT) Project aims at connecting Kolkata and Mizoram via Sittwe port in Myanmar. The $484 million project is considered strategically important in the face of China’s presence in Myanmar and the region. Sittwe port was developed in 2016 at a cost of $120 million. However, the Kaladan project’s last leg remains incomplete due to fighting between ethnic insurgent groups and the junta.
India’s relations with Myanmar’s ruling junta are entering the zone of uncertainty after its losses on many fronts mounted since October 2023 at the hands of ethnic insurgent groups and the Peoples’ Democratic Force (PDF). The PDF is the armed wing of the National Unity Government (NUG) led by Aung Suu Kyi, formed by elected legislators after the coup. The NUG has managed to muster the financial support of diaspora to support the war through innovative use of electronic money transfer. The war is likely to drag on unless the ruling junta can evolve a face-saving formula.
Nearer home to Indian borders, the Arakan Army (AA), the 30,000-strong ethnic insurgent group of Rakhine, has been having remarkable success in its operations against Tatmadaw in Rakhine and Chin states. So far, the AA has captured 170 junta outposts, three towns and at least three battalion headquarters. After AA captured Paletwa, the port town on Kaladan River, in the vicinity of the Shwe oil and gas project and the Sittwe port-KMMT transit project zone, MEA issued an advisory not to travel to Rakhine state. Those based there have been urged to leave immediately.
India must have discussed these issues during the 20th round of India-Myanmar Foreign Office Consultations held in Delhi on December 6, 2023. Foreign Secretary Vinay Kwatra and Myanmar Deputy Foreign Minister U Lwin Oo led their delegations at the talks. According to an MEA statement, the discussions covered the situation along the border and security, trade, commerce and connectivity, status of bilateral development projects in Myanmar and concerns on transnational crimes. India also expressed its continued support for connectivity projects among other people-centric projects. The Indian side reiterated its support to Myanmar for its transition towards a federal democracy.
The only consolation is that China, a major stakeholder in Myanmar’s security, political and economic interests, is facing bigger dilemmas in the country. China has been the saviour of the Myanmar junta and has faced flak in the UN Security Council. Despite this, China has a complex relationship of support to Myanmar’s ruling junta while emerging as a key mediator to facilitate peace between it and ethnic insurgent groups operating along its border. At the same time, it cannot ignore anti-Chinese sentiments prevailing in the country.
Chinese President Xi Jinping visited Naypyidaw in January 2020 to promote Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) projects, particularly the Kyaukpyu port near Sittwe. China is also facing uncertainties of civil war, particularly after the success of the AA ethnic group in Rakhine state. China Power began the construction of the $180 million Kyaukphyu gas steam combined cycle power plant project. It is expected to help the operations of the deep sea port and SEZ.
Palestinian poet Mahmoud Darwish words are apt for Myanmar: “The metaphor for Palestine is stronger than the reality of Palestine.” This is because its future is unpredictable. The history of democracy in Myanmar is written in blood in patches, with the Tatmadaw ruling it either directly or indirectly. Will NUG succeed in taming the Tatmadaw? Will ASEAN mediation succeed in bringing peace in Myanmar? Probably, both India and China are hoping it will happen as they are weary of taking up the job.
—The writer is a retired military intelligence specialist on South Asia associated with the Chennai Centre for China Studies