Houthi attacks on ships around the area, including two Indian ones, portend a dangerous phase of terrorism. However, the launch of a new maritime force by the US has few takers due to political schisms
By Subramanyam Sridharan
The audacious and surprise attack on Israel by the Gaza-based Hamas terrorist group on October 7 has spawned several challenges in the region, diplomatically and otherwise. Even as the world is grappling with the horrors of the attack itself and the subsequent humanitarian crisis in Gaza, a new challenge has emerged in the form of Houthi rebels from Yemen, attacking ships in the busy sea lanes around the southern Red Sea and Bab-el-Mandeb.
Yemen is strategically located at the southern entrance to the Red Sea through the Bab-el-Mandeb chokepoint which links the Mediterranean Sea with the Indian Ocean. Though there is a Suez-Mediterranean pipeline for transport of oil, it is meant to bypass the Suez Canal and not Bab-el-Mandeb. Then, there are non-oil commercial cargo too which go through this chokepoint to reach Europe or Asia. About 20% of the world’s energy and 12% of trade flow through this critical chokepoint. Any closure of Bab-el-Mandeb requires shipping to go around the circuitous Cape of Good Hope.
Across the chokepoint, on the other side, is another lawless area, the Puntland province of Somalia, from where pirates had been regularly attacking maritime traffic. After the Somali pirates opportunistically used the ongoing Houthi attacks to hijack a ship on December 16, there were attacks on two ships en route to India, MV Chem Pluto on December 22 and MV Sai Baba, the very next day. The attack on Chem Pluto was 217 nautical miles south west of Porbandar in the northern Arabian Sea with a one-way drone. The ship was nowhere near the Red Sea or the Bab-el-Mandeb, but was transporting oil from Jubail on the Persian Gulf to the Mangalore refinery. The issue became serious because the attack was close to India’s Exclusive Economic Zone and far away from the Yemeni coast.
The drone attack by the Houthis on MV Sai Baba, which was carrying petroleum products to India from Saudi Arabia’s Yanbu port and transiting the southern Red Sea, fortunately did not do any damage. The same day, the Houthis fired two Anti-Ship Ballistic Missiles (AShBMs) into the Red Sea, luckily without hitting any ships. However, unlike MV Sai Baba, the attack on Chem Pluto started a fire which was fortunately put down. The Government of India has taken these two attacks very seriously and the defence minister has vowed to find the perpetrators “even from the bottom of the ocean” and take “strict action”. As a preferred security partner and a first responder in the Indian Ocean Region, the Indian Navy has, as a result, deployed more naval assets, including three stealth guided-missile destroyers, long-range patrol aircraft, etc., in the central and northern Arabian Sea regions.
Who are the Houthis and what does this dangerous development portend?
The Arabian Peninsula, the birth-place of the three Abrahamic religions, has been wracked for nearly 2,000 years by various religious wars, the most serious of which have been between the Jews and the Muslims and between the Sunni and Shi’a Islamist co-religionists. Over a period of time, after splitting from the mainstream Sunnis, the Shi’a consolidated essentially into Fivers, Seveners and Twelvers depending upon how many of those early Imams they recognise. The Fivers share the first four Imams, but start a new branch with Imam Zaid and are also known therefore as Zaidis.
The recent history of the old civilisation of Yemen reflects all these schisms. The second most populous country in the Arabian Peninsula today, Yemen had always been ruled by two power centres at Sana’a and Aden. After the Ottoman’s collapse, the coastal areas of Yemen along the Red Sea (known as Vilayet of Yemen), came under Zaidi imams. This part, dominated by war-like tribals, later became the Yemen Arab Republic (YAR). It is in this part of Yemen that the notorious Hodeida Port is located, where one of the recently hijacked ships, supposedly the Israeli-linked Galaxy Leader, has been taken to. The Houthis boarded this Pipavav-bound ship by rappelling down a Houthi helicopter.
South Yemen (known as the Hadhramaut), which includes the Port of Aden, was a British colony until 1967. The Sunni Muslim-dominated South Yemen came under the Soviet influence and was known as People’s Democratic Republic of Yemen (PDRY). Both PDRY and YAR united in 1990 creating the Republic of Yemen.
Al-Qaeda terrorists from Yemen bombed US Navy’s USS Cole at the Port of Aden in October, 2000, as a precursor to 9/11. In 2009, the Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) was established in Hadhramaut and American counter-terrorism operations intensified. Across the Gulf of Aden, the Al-Qaeda affiliated “al Shabaab” Sunni terrorist organisation operates in Somalia.
In 2014, the Iran-backed “Ansar Allah” (Servants of Allah), also known as the Houthis, took over Sana’a. Alarmed by the Iranian Shi’a influence along its southern border, Saudi Arabia and the Gulf Cooperation Council members along with the US et al attacked the Houthis in 2015. Though this has caused a humanitarian crisis in Yemen, the Houthis have struck back at important Saudi cities of Jeddah, Yanbu, and Abqaiq with missiles and drones and the Saudi attack has since floundered.
The Iranian Islamists, who have a deep implacability with the Jews, have surrounded Israel with their proxy terror organisations such as the Hezbollah, the Houthis, the Iraqi and the Syrian militia. They have also helped the Muslim Brotherhood-inspired Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad in the Gaza. The Quds forces, part of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps train, fund, and equip these groups, known as the “Axis of Resistance”.
Iran has supplied the Houthis with Iran-made ballistic and cruise missiles, as well as long-range drones. The Houthis also possess the export version C-801/802 of Chinese anti-ship cruise missiles and Iranian short-range AShBMs. In addition, they have various naval assets which make them a dangerous player, especially in the waters of the chokepoint. Since the Hamas attack on Israel, the Houthis have fired their missiles and drones at Israel frequently, though ineffectively. The scarier part is that the Houthis have the wherewithal to mine the Strait as well. With these proxy forces, the Iranians want to keep its two arch enemies, Israel and Saudi Arabia, under leash and cock-a-snook at the US in these regions. Apart from the US-led Combined Maritime Force, there are two European Union-led naval task forces too patrolling the region.
In the current instance, the Houthis first attacked international shipping in the Red Sea on November 19. While they initially claimed that they would only attack Israeli assets or maritime commerce to-and-from Israeli ports, they escalated the attacks quickly to all maritime traffic. By the latest count, the Houthis have attacked 23 ships. As a result, several top shipping lines have announced that they would avoid the Red Sea for now.
A joint international effort, in which the Indian Navy played a crucial role, solved the Somali piracy problem by 2017. A similar joint effort would be needed now to prevent the Houthis from escalating the attacks, though such a task is overloaded with political connotations. Besides, the Houthis are a potent military force unlike the ragtag Somali pirates and are also backed by a nation-state, Iran. Arab states may not overtly associate with such an effort for fear that it could be misconstrued as indirect support to Israel against the Palestinians.
The Houthi attacks led to the US setting up “Operation Prosperity Guardian” to conduct joint patrols in these waters, with participation from 20 countries, while some others plan to operate outside of this coalition. India has said that it “supported free movement of commercial shipping” and “has been part of efforts to ensure the safe transit of ships in the Arabian Sea”.
Predictably, China has declined an invitation to join the coalition and seemed to pass the buck to the US, saying, “major countries with influence, need to play a constructive and responsible role in keeping the shipping lanes safe in the Red Sea”.
For China, which has lately brokered an unprecedented diplomatic deal between Saudi Arabia and Iran, this would be an opportunity to further consolidate its position in the Arabian Peninsula. Its own maritime trade is affected especially when its economy is facing severe headwinds. It has significant influence with Iran too, a country that has been involved theologically and militarily with the Houthis and has therefore significant leverage over them. China has been active ever since the Hamas attacks, even severely condemning the Israelis. This may be an opportunity for China to advance its Global Security Initiative and be seen as a deal maker in the complex Yemeni situation, although it also risks exposing its diplomatic limitations.
The moot questions, therefore, are whether the 1,500-year old religious resentment can be trumped by a few billion dollars of Chinese investments and whether the Chinese are willing to take risks. The former is impossible, while the latter is improbable.
— Subramanyam Sridharan is a computer scientist by education and profession. He has held key positions in India and abroad and has co-authored two books on computing. He has been keenly interested in international relationship (IR) and matters relating to Indian Foreign Policy, Military, Space, Terrorism, and Indian neighbourhood with a particular interest in China, Pakistan and Afghanistan. His articles have been published in various newspapers and magazines. He is a distinguished member of the Chennai Centre for China Studies (C3S) where he regularly publishes research papers and guides research interns