This year will see a lot of action due to inimical forces across India’s borders. The government will have to be on guard and reinvent its approach to fighting militancy and not act with yesterday’s logic
By Col R Hariharan
This year will be a crucial one in India’s fight against terrorism considering the patronage given by Pakistan and Canada to such elements. The new government that will be formed in India after the general elections will have its task cut out in tackling this menace.
In keeping with Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s zero-tolerance against terrorism, in 2023, New Delhi made holistic progress in the fight against this menace. Concerted action was taken on financial, legal, intelligence and operational systems to seal existing loopholes which were exploited by extremist elements as well as their front organisations. Security forces are being provided upgraded systems and equipment, including drones for their operations along the border. The National Investigation Agency had been active in tracing and prosecuting jihadi terrorists and sympathizers, as well as dismantling their support ecosystem.
Pictures of a milling crowd celebrating the New Year at the grandly lit-up Lal Chowk in Srinagar despite the minus 3.5 degree Celsius were a hit on social media. It showed that the troubled Union Territory (UT) was at last picking up the pieces of normal life. The South Asia Terrorism Portal’s comparative statistics on J&K for 2023 as against 2022 are also encouraging. The number of incidents involving killings has come down to 72 from 151. Only 12 civilians lost their lives as against 39. On the other hand, the losses of security forces marginally increased to 33 from 30, whereas the body count of terrorists fell to 87 from 193 in 2022.
But numbers alone do not tell the whole story. In mid-December, Army and BSF troops were put on alert after intelligence reports indicated that 250-300 militants were waiting at launch pads along the border. So far, they do not seem to have succeeded in infiltrating in strength. In 2023, for the first time, 50 out of the 72 terrorists killed, were foreigners, confirming reports of Pakistan facing a shortage of local recruits for induction in J&K.
Assessments carried out by central agencies indicate that 91 militants, including 61 foreigners, are active in J&K, including the Rajouri-Poonch belt which has been the scene of insurgent activity since last October. Action has also been taken to dismantle the terrorists’ support system within J&K. The police there apprehended 291 terrorist associates, and 201 overground workers were charged under the Public Safety Act. The police claimed the UT had only 31 local terrorists, an all-time low, and the recruitment of locals into militancy has dropped by 80% in 2023 with only 21 new recruits.
Union Home Minister Amit Shah reviewed the security situation in J&K at a meeting on January 2 in Delhi. Lt Governor of J&K Manoj Sinha, National Security Advisor Ajit Doval, Army chief General Manoj Pande and intelligence officials were present. According to agency reports, Shah emphasised the need for the complete elimination of the terror ecosystem in accordance with the zero-tolerance approach against this menace.
But India’s fight against terrorism and insurgency does not end with J&K only. It extends to the sensitive border areas of Punjab, where Khalistan fringe elements supported by the deep state in Pakistan have been trafficking arms, narcotics and fake currency, often using drones. The Punjab BSF has claimed to have shot down over 100 drones during 2023. Unfortunately, Canada has become the hotbed of the Khalistani anti-India ecosystem. As External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar said, the issue at heart is the fact that Canadian politics have given space to Khalistani forces and allowed them to indulge in activities that are damaging relations with India. It is clearly not in India’s interest or Canada’s.
The issue is no longer a bilateral one between India and Canada after the former came to know of the involvement of Five Fingers, an intelligence alliance of the US, the UK, Canada, Australia and New Zealand. So far, Khalistani elements in Canada and the US have only been giving threatening statements against India and its diplomats, apart from desecrating some Hindu temples. But given the free run by Canada and Pakistan in providing patronage, Khalistanis have the potential to cause trouble in India in 2024.
India’s internal security apparatus is poised to be tested during January when the nation celebrates the inauguration of the Ram Mandir in Ayodhya from January 16 till the consecration on January 22. It will be followed by the Republic Day parade in Delhi on January 26. These events attract huge crowds and provide attractive targets to terrorists.
For many Hindus, the construction of the Ram Mandir symbolises the reassertion of their faith. It is believed that Mughal rulers demolished the original Ram temple that existed on the hillock of Ramkot and built the Babri Masjid on the site. On the other hand, for sections of Muslims, the Ram Mandir is a painful reminder of the demolition of Babri Masjid carried out by Hindu mobs on December 6, 1992.
Asaduddin Owaisi of the All India Majlis-E-Ittehadul Muslimeen reflected their anguish: “Young people, I am telling you, we have lost our masjid and you are seeing what is being done there. Don’t you have pain in your hearts?” He told them that the place where they had sat and recited the Quran for 500 years was not in their hands today. “Young people, don’t you see that a conspiracy is taking place regarding three, four more mosques, in which the Sunheri Masjid (Golden Mosque) of Delhi is also included?” Owaisi appealed to them to pay attention to these things.
When Babri Masjid was demolished, it produced a tectonic effect on the social milieu of the country. Infuriated by the demolition, Mumbai’s crime czar and boss of the D Company, Dawood Ibrahim, masterminded the 1993 Bombay bombings on March 12, 1993. In a series of 12 bombings that day, 257 people were killed and 1,400 injured. In the six weeks of riots thereafter, 900 people are estimated to have lost their lives.
The demolition was universally condemned by the Islamic world. It triggered anti-Hindu riots in Bangladesh and Pakistan. The demolition provided the justification for jihadi outfits, including the Indian Mujahideen and the Pakistan-based Lashkar-e-Taiba, to attack India. This continues to this day and affects India-Pakistan relations.
Both Bangladesh and Pakistan are facing the uncertainties of elections in January and February, respectively. Elections in both countries generate their own turbulence. The Ram Mandir inauguration can become a political ploy to provoke anti-India sentiments in the run up to the elections. This is more so in Pakistan which is reeling under terrorist attacks.
The annual security report for 2023 of the Center for Research and Security Studies, an Islamabad-based think tank, said: “Pakistan witnessed 1524 violence-related fatalities and 1463 injuries from as many as 789 terror attacks and counter-terror operations.” Security forces suffered one third of the fatalities. For Pakistan’s deep state, triggering jihadi terrorist activity using LeT proxies in J&K and Punjab is an attractive proposition to divert the attention of the people from chaotic happenings in its own backyard.
Lastly, in Myanmar territory bordering India, the junta government is on the backfoot after pro-democracy forces scored huge victories. According to reports, 23 towns and more than 400 junta military bases and outposts have been captured by the Brotherhood Alliance and allied resistance forces across Myanmar in Chin, Rakhine, Karenni (Kayah) and Shan states and Sagaing Region till December 27. The towns captured include those bordering Mizoram, Manipur and Nagaland. According to media reports from Mizoram, 150 Tatmadaw soldiers entered Mizoram on December 29. Reports said 83 soldiers crossed over on December 29 and another group of 68 soldiers entered on December 30.The uncertainties in Myanmar can add to the already tense insurgency situation in Manipur.
Overall, we can see a lot of action in India in 2024. Modi or whosoever comes to power after the general elections should be prepared to face increased internal turbulence generated by hate mongers, aided by inimical forces across the borders. The government in place will have to constantly reinvent its approach to fighting militancy.
As management pundit Peter Drucker said: “The greatest danger in times of turbulence is not the turbulence; it is to act with yesterday’s logic.”
—The writer is a retired military intelligence specialist on South Asia associated with the Chennai Centre for China Studies