On June 23, the UK will vote whether to remain in the EU or exit it. Campaigns from both sides have been split by hype and mud-slinging. The final result could well decide UK Prime Minister David Cameron’s future
By Denis Lyons in London
The first and most important question for anyone voting in the EU referendum on June 23 must be: “What are the issues?” The answer to this obvious question is not so obviously found. The campaigns of both the “Leave” and “Remain” sides have been characterised by exaggeration, distortion, scaremongering and a general lack of information for the ordinary voter. The “Leave” campaign is more blameworthy when it comes to hype and frequent distortion of facts. This side sent leaflets to every household in the country some time ago entitled: “The European Union: The Facts”. This document did not contain even a single fact regarding Europe, its institutions or how it functions, but contained a great deal of opinion purporting to be fact.
By the same token, the “Remain” campaign has been guilty of scaremongering on a grand scale.
The Campaign Haze
There have been dire warnings on the effect of a British Exit (Brexit) on the economy and various figures have been bandied about regarding the potentially disastrous effects on ordinary households. Heavy hitters like the US president, the IMF and European leaders have been brought to bat for the “Remain” campaign.
Nowhere can the average individual find a document which sets out the advantages and disadvantages in an objective way. Those hoping to glean something from the public debate will also be disappointed. This has been characterised by mud-slinging, hype and personal attack, with the “Leave” campaign being particularly guilty in this regard. Among the more egregious examples by the “Brexiteers” has been the comparison of the EU to Hitler’s quest to build a European super-state by former London mayor Boris Johnson and the claim by Nigel Farage, the leader of the UKIP (UK Independence Party) that sexual assaults of the kind seen in Germany at New Year would increase if Britain remained.
Overall, public discourse has been characterised by assertion followed by counter-assertion and then personal attack. There is little evidence presented by the “Remain” side and often none at all by the Brexiteers, who seem happy to allow their sound bites to do the talking.
Penetrating the Campaign Haze
To penetrate through the thick blanket of media fog is not easy but there seem to be three main themes in the current debate: immigration, sovereignty and the economy, with the first of these being the main driver of the “Leave” campaign.
Immigration has long been an important issue in British politics. The common feeling among many is that it is out of control. This is seen as placing a strain on public services like the NHS (National Health Service), transport, education and social security. Recently published figures showing a rise in immigration largely from Eastern Europe to 3,00,000 last year led to a five-point increase in the polls for the “Leave” campaign. For Brexiteers, the solution to the problem is simple: take back sovereignty. Under EU law, workers are free to circulate in Europe as part of their fundamental rights. By leaving Europe and taking back control of its borders, Britain can stem the tide of migrants.
On the economy front, the “Leave” campaign is on shakier ground. The majority of the business community favours remaining in the EU and sees clear benefits in terms of trade tariffs and opportunities. Leaving the EU after 40—albeit fractious—years would be a leap in the dark. Investors do not like uncertainty and the effect would be to exacerbate the current volatility in markets caused by the possibility of a Brexit.
From a legal perspective, the influence of European law can be seen first by way of the doctrine of supremacy. EU law prevails over conflicting domestic law, especially regarding fundamental rights under the treaties pertaining to free movement of people, capital and goods.
EU law also influences workers’ rights throughout Europe. What few rights workers have in the UK stem entirely from EU law. This is seen as largely positive, but the EU is also responsible for a plethora of harsh and petty rules, which are universally reviled and frequently ridiculed in the British press. This is fertile ground for the “Leave” campaign. However, what they fail to state is that EU law does not apply universally. There are large areas of the system where it has little or no influence like Tort, Land and Trusts.
Criminal law remains largely in the hands of domestic courts, despite claims by the “Leave” campaign that judges have been overruled by European courts on matters like counter-terrorism and prisoner voting. Decisions in such cases have come, in fact, from the European Court of Human Rights and not the European Court of Justice, the court of the EU. They stem from Britain’s international obligations under the Euro-pean Convention on Human Rights and domestic legislation like the Human Rights Act and have nothing to do with the EU, a fact that is conveniently glossed over by leave campaigners. Leave campaigners also claim as a “fact” that Albania, Macedonia, Serbia and Turkey are all about to join the EU. This is entirely untrue. First, because there is an accession process which these countries have to go through and none of them are near qualification, second, all member states have to agree unanimously to new members joining. So, Britain has effectively a veto on any such country joining.
WHO WILL WIN?
Given all of the obfuscation outlined above, this is a hard question to answer. The “Leave” campaign has never been ahead in the polls, but the “Remain” campaign has seen its lead getting eroded. Older and more conservative people in the South East of England are generally for leaving, younger voters for remaining. The former tend to vote religiously, the latter not to. A third of people are undecided.
Given that people do not vote against their economic interest, my view is that Britain will remain.
-The writer is a Barrister at Law.